On Travel

by Frost on December 17, 2011

OneSTDV mocks the male travel blog genre, which probably includes me even though I haven’t gotten around to any actual travel blogging yet. I’ll make sure I’m qualified to respond by opening this post with an update.

I’ve been in Chiang Mai for just over one month now, and I’ve been having an absolutely incredible time. I’m living like a king – great food, regular massages, 3-5 hours a day of 1-on-1 Muay Thai training. I’ve met some really cool and interesting friends. I’ve been writing like a mad man, taking notes and drafting the first few chapters of my second and third books. I’ve been retardedly healthy, eating nothing but fresh meat and veggies, fruit shakes, and similar. Sleeping by 10pm almost every night. Didn’t have a drop of alcohol for a month. Reading constantly, burning through 2-3 meaty books a week.

In a week, I’m flying to Bangkok and meeting two (or three) of my best friends and we’re going to rock out with our cocks out up and down the subcontinent until mid-late February. After that I’m looking into a 3-week silent meditation retreat, and/or doing another month of Muay Thai or Ju Jitsu.

After THAT, I’m flying to Israel, then spending the summer backpacking through Greece, Italy, Austria, Germany, The Netherlands and the UK. Might as well see western civilization while some of it is still there, right?

My life right now is full of hard work, rapid learning, self-improvement, personal reflection, new experiences, new relationships, and freedom. Money is trickling out of my savings account at a slower pace than it’s trickling in, but I’m hoping to change that. Every day, I’m learning new ways to earn money on the road from books and some entrepreneurial-minded friends I’ve met out here.

I actually relate to a lot of One’s sentiments, and I made some similar points in (speaking of throwback week) this post.

As the men of my (and One’s) generation start to realize how royally screwed the USA is, their responses are going to fall broadly into two categories: 1) Flee, or 2) Stay an Fight. I think OneSTDV’s animus towards myself and other young male travelers is based on the impression that long-term travel implies door number two.

Leaving aside the question of which door is more fulfilling in the long run, or which door we’re morally obligated to take, I suggest that long-term travel is not only compatible with the Stay And Fight mentality, it is conducive to it. I honestly don’t mean to get personal or attack OneSTDV, a guy I have a lot of respect for, but I’d like to ask him: What exactly are you doing with your life that gives you the right to sneer at mine?

Aside from writing a valuable blog, my guess would be, not a whole lot. If One is secretly organizing counter-revolutionary cells and mimeographing restorationist pamphlets in his basement, than I concede his right to call me out on charges of unseriousness and frivolity. If his contribution to the Conservative movement begins and ends with onestdc.blogspot.com, well, I have a blog too.

On top of that, I am:

– Learning how to fight, and getting in the best shape of my life

– Reading through the western canon and completing a distance ed PhD in revisionist history under professors Moldbug and Foseti, with Kalim as TA

– Learning how to fund my life without the time suck of a nine-to-five job

– Throwing myself into new and intimidating situations that challenge my confidence and comfort zone

– Meeting new people and building a network that could come in handy in a lot of different ways in the future

Now, OneSTDV and I both believe that this think called Western Civilization is worth saving, and that a conflict looms over if it will be saved or not. Whether it involves guns or ideas, a war is coming for the heart and soul of the bruised and battered body (corpse?) of the West, and we will be fighting, or at least cheering, for the same side.

My second question for OneSTDV is thus: Which of us two will be a more valuable asset in that war, as a result of the life choices we’ve made?

I am going to emerge from this year of my life stronger, smarter, wiser, more self-aware, and just generally better than I am now. If an organized Reaction is to occur, it will require a small number of enlightened men who are vastly superior to the masses. We must be the Spartans at Thermopylae. Vagabonding and living abroad is my way of becoming the best version of myself that I can be. The Swedish gap-year girls, massages, happy shakes and parties are just fortuitous sideshows.

{ 43 comments… read them below or add one }

jim December 19, 2011 at 11:13 pm

Are you a full-on white nationalist who thinks that most of the wests problems are a result of black/brown people and can be fixed by getting rid of them (this is a serious question, not trolling)?

Cameron December 19, 2011 at 7:01 am

‘Didn’t have a drop of alcohol for a month.’

I feel sorry for you. Surely you could have got it from somewhere?

Frost December 19, 2011 at 10:02 am

Sober by choice! I barely went out my first month here, and when I did I was the big farang drinking gay fruit smoothies. In any case no need to feel sorry, I still had a blast.

Cameron December 19, 2011 at 11:02 am

Kidding, kidding.

When I was 21-22 (30 now) when I spent a year traveling around Western Europe and it was the best time of my life. I lived and worked out of London for a couple of months at a time then took off around the continent again. It’s something of a rite of passage for Australian’s.

I think overseas travel is something all young men should do. Straight form Uni/College to career is likely to lead to insanity IMHO. Drop me a line if you make it down here and we’ll grab a beer, no fruit shakes!

Twenty December 19, 2011 at 12:51 am

If an organized Reaction is to occur, it will require a small number of enlightened men who are vastly superior to the masses.

There’s nothing quite as charming as the self-appointed ubermensch.

We must be the Spartans at Thermopylae.

You do know what happened to those Spartans (and Thebans, &c.), right, Mr. Western Canon?

Look pal, you’re just some punk bumming around SE Asia for a season. Nothing wrong with that, and maybe you’ll amount to something someday, but how about you dismount that horse you’re on, K?

Frost December 19, 2011 at 1:46 am

So would that make you the self-appointed Untermensch?

Some people channel the negative emotions that result from the distance between their actual and ideal selves into productive pursuits. Others channel them into jealousy, negativity and a desire to see others abandon their ambitions. Which do you think is more conducive to a good life?

Twenty December 19, 2011 at 4:08 am

So would that make you the self-appointed Untermensch?

No. I’m mocking your self-importance, not buying in to it. Even on its own terms, your remark is appalling ignorant; the “untermensch” is not naturally paired with the ubermensch, the one concept follows the other by about 50 years, and they sport rather different intellectual pedigrees.

As for the balance of your remarks — I’m not sure what to make of them. I guess you consider your current activities “productive”. I don’t know how to tell you this, chief, but a little Muay Thai training and some reading doesn’t actually constitute production. Maybe, one day, they’ll enable you to become productive (though not sure what you’re planning to do with the Muay Thai — work as a bouncer, bodyguard, or cop?) but they’re not anything anyone will pay you to do.

Once again: Get off the horse. You are not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake. You’re the same decaying organic matter as everything else. (You know the routine.)

To put it one last way: Roosh has done everything you’ve done, better than you’ve done it, yet manages to not come off like a delusional, self-imporant asshole when he writes about it. Give that some thought.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 10:22 am

Fine, random internet hater, I will buy a plane ticket home tomorrow. You win.

Twenty December 19, 2011 at 2:34 pm

I didn’t say “come home”. I said (in effect) “pour yourself a nice, tall glass of shut the fuck up”. There’s a difference, but I guess for you there’s no point in doing anything unless you can run your mouth about it (and how unimaginably wonderful and special it makes you), so you can’t see it.

Too bad.

Cyprian Korzeniowski December 18, 2011 at 11:12 pm

If One is secretly organizing counter-revolutionary cells and mimeographing restorationist pamphlets in his basement, than I concede his right to call me out on charges of unseriousness and frivolity.

He pretty much is. He blogs, and people read him. It isn’t that different from pamphleteering. (Unless you literally mean restorationist pamphlets, which would be silly. Even if monarchism wasn’t a fringe ideology, you’d be hard pressed to find a reactionary royal, let alone one with the cojones to so much as speak out for their own homeland.)

If an organized Reaction is to occur, it will require a small number of enlightened men who are vastly superior to the masses. We must be the Spartans at Thermopylae. Vagabonding and living abroad is my way of becoming the best version of myself that I can be. The Swedish gap-year girls, massages, happy shakes and parties are just fortuitous sideshows.

If you genuinely think vagabonding will prepare you to stop the collapse of Western Civilization, then go ahead and do it. But you should ask yourself why doing this will help you towards your goal. If you just want self-improvement, then throw out all the big ideas about saving Western Civilization and just admit you’re staying poolside, and will be indefinitely. I don’t have a problem with anyone who wants to check out of the system and go poolside; it’s rotten anyways.

In Xenophon’s Anabasis, the 10,000 do consider staying in Persia, but Xenophon cautions against it, as the soft and effeminate living conditions there would ruin them as warriors. If Frederick the Great had escaped to England and continued as his life of luxury, he wouldn’t have been at all great. Things to consider if you want to fight against the multicult, dusky hordes, feminists, and the rest of the scum hard at work destroying civilization.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 1:40 am

I have a blog too. Perhaps you’ve seen it. My question to One is, if I’m poolside, where is he? What is he doing that I’m not?

As for how I’m improving myself… did you read the post?

Cyprian Korzeniowski December 19, 2011 at 6:41 pm

I have a blog too. Perhaps you’ve seen it. My question to One is, if I’m poolside, where is he? What is he doing that I’m not?

I have no idea what One is doing outside of writing his blog. He is scant on identifying personal details, for obvious reasons. He’s an advocate for marrying and having a family, and as we all know, demography is destiny.

As for how I’m improving myself… did you read the post?

Yes. I don’t think travelling in order to sample the fare at the buffet of experience and reading the Western canon is going to save Western Civilization, even if it weren’t terminally ill/already dead. You’d be better off marrying a traditional Eastern European girl, having ten kids, and becoming self-sufficient. Or start a new religion that involves high white fecundity.

Kevin December 18, 2011 at 6:12 am

I completely agree with you One.

Especially about the fatties. Jeez, just move to a big city in America and you will have tons of hot women. I am in Thailand right now where supposedly the women are hot – and let me tell, its a complete myth. My home town of New York has more hotties in one square mile than entire districts in Thailand. All the women here are is thin – not hot. But all these guys can complain about is the fat women in America. So instead they get ugly thin women in Thailand. I suppose that is a trade up – but why not move to a cool American city where you can meet genuinely attractive American girls?

Things are NOT BETTER overseas – they might be bad in DIFFERENT ways, but they are hardly better.

That being said, the mere experience of being someplace DIFFERENT can be intoxicating. Its just fun for its own sake. Once the sense of difference wears off you realize the place is not actually better and the high fades.

Also, some of these funkier run down countries can be a bit more interesting for a while than middle class life in America, so if you are a bit adventurous it can keep you occupied for a bit. But that is all.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 1:39 am

Perhaps surprisingly, I agree with most of this. Any guy who moves to Thailand expecting to get laid like a rockstar simply because he is white will be sorely disappointed. The only reason getting laid here might be easier than in the west is because traveling forces you to cold approach. Most North American cities are full of hot, slutty girls, who don’t expect to be taken out on dates, and will pay their share of any expenses. I’ve only been in Thailand for a month and avoided the nightlife for the first three weeks of that, but of what little experience I’ve had, I’ve far more enjoyed the euro tourist girls I’ve been with than the thais.

As for it not being better, I see you point. But… while ripping down the main drag of chaing mai at 4am on my motorcycle, back to my luxury hotel, with two awesome new friends to either side, hot 19 y/o swedish girls wearing our helmets and clutching our waists, beers in our cupholders, cheering and catcalling at people as we drive past… I decided that yes, some things certainly are better here.

Kevin December 19, 2011 at 5:58 am

But… while ripping down the main drag of chaing mai at 4am on my motorcycle, back to my luxury hotel, with two awesome new friends to either side, hot 19 y/o swedish girls wearing our helmets and clutching our waists, beers in our cupholders, cheering and catcalling at people as we drive past… I decided that yes, some things certainly are better here.

Ha! Yeah, that is one of the funnest things to do in Thailand isnt it ;) That is one of my personal favs. Wild times! You do have a certain level of wild freedom here lacking in the more controlled West.

Wait till you get to Cambodia, Frost, it has a significantly more Wild West feel to it than Thailand, and for some utterly bizarre reason it has even hotter tourist chics and some great parties! Vietnam also gets hot tourist chics from all over the world. Chiang Mai really does not get the best tourist chics……but oh well.

Any guy who moves to Thailand expecting to get laid like a rockstar simply because he is white will be sorely disappointed.

Well, they will get laid like rockstars, just with ugly chics. Moving to Thailand for sex is only viable for those guys on the lowest rungs of the sexual ladder where getting any sex at all with non-fat chics is a seen as a blessing from heaven. With ugly chics who are nevertheless thin, a sexual loser back home can get an almost inifnite amount of sex with in Thailand . For some people this is paradise. I am not judging. Just describing.

For white guys trying to get with the hotter Thai girls you have two things working against you 1) Believe it or not, there are very few genuinely hot girls in Thailand. Most large Western cities have a significantly higher proportion of hot women in the clubs 2) Any place where the pretty women are few, the odds are against you. Most of the few pretty women are snatched up by the local high status guys. You have a much better chance in a large Western city with a large population of pretty girls, something Thailand lacks where the odds will favor you.

but of what little experience I’ve had, I’ve far more enjoyed the euro tourist girls I’ve been with than the thais.

Frost, this might change if you party in Bangkok. The girls are much hotter than in CM and there is this group of educated, English speaking Thai girls who have often been to the West and combine some of the best elements of Thailand and the West. They retain much of their femininity and charm but are not as shy or socially awkward as the average Thai girl. Of course, some of these girls are quite hot and you will have lots of competetion for them, local and non-local, but at least things will be no different than back home.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 10:19 am

Cambodia is next! Right after NYE in bangkok.

I agree about the girls. I’ve spent most of my time in backpacker bars, where the only thai girls are lower/middle class. They are 1) all 6’s and 7’s, 2) Weird and no fun to talk to, and 3) semi-pros. I have a few funny stories, but made no real connections with any of them, or met any I would really want to see again.

Me and a buddy checked out some classier places, and they were full of very hot thai girls who generally spoke english well, but their circles are a tough nut to crack. I’m sure it’s not impossible though.

Tourist girls are just awesome though. They’re cute, far away from the judgmental eyes of society, and more intelligent/fun/adventurous/interesting than typical North American bar girls. Most of the girls I’ve met, chatted up and didn’t sleep with, I still enjoyed the interaction a lot. And those that I did sleep with, it was a lot more fun than a typical one night stand back home. Knowing that it’s temporary removes the BS from a short-term relationship. It’s more intimate, if I may be excused for gaying out for a second.

I’m in Bangkok by the 28th for sure, but I’m considering going down bit earlier. I’m done training, and as much as I love CM, I’m starting to get way too excited about BKK (Your comment isn’t helping!) If you have a list of recommended bars/clubs in the city to check out, throw ’em up I’d appreciate it.

Cheers,

Frost

Kevin December 21, 2011 at 7:13 am

Dont miss out on Phnom Phen, Frost. It has no star attraction like Siem Reap but Siem has grown somewhat tame of late and can be quite overrun with tour groups (its still cool, though) which is driving its tameness and PP retains a much rawer and more authentic feel.

If you want access to the classier chics in Chiang Mai you must must must have high status Thai male friends. There is simply no other way to do it. You must be socially proofed. When I was living in CM a while back I remember going to the classier places alone as a white guy and having ZERO success. When I got *adopted* by a group of high status males suddenly all sorts of (light skinned, classy, hot) girls from their group and other groups wanted to know and fuck me, it was unreal. I firmly believe that these classy Thai chics LOVE white dudes but they will not act on that unless you have some serious social proof and they will suffer no loss of status for doing so. Dont believe the hype about them not being into foreigners – oh boy ARE they! But you need to be socially proofed and accepted by their Thai male friends. This is MUCH LESS the case in Bangkok (but still somewhat the case)

CM is a bit of an outlier in terms of the nightlife and social scene here. I honestly dont know a place in Thailand where it is more difficult to pull a hot girl – even the semi-pros – and where the girls have a conception of their value completely unrelated to what they are in reality. Dont judge the rest of Thailand by the nightlife in CM. Even the semi-pros – who are MUCH less hot than their sisters in BKK – have an incredibly high conception of themselves and are astonishingly picky. CM is very far from being a cosmopolitan city and exists in a sort of bubble and time warp that allows the girls there to develop attitudes and ideas of themselves that are laughably out of sync with their actual ranking compared to Bangkok and other places in Thailand, not to mention the rest of the world! I remember this one group of *pretty* girls who were clearly semi-pros getting approached night after night by every kind of guy imaginable, young Asian guys and old Asian guys, young white guys and old white guys, ugly guys and handsome guys, and they would hang out with these dudes and let them buy them drinks but never went home with anyone. I became sort of friendly with these girls and laugh at the situation. I think they were looking for long term sugar daddys – the funny thing is, while pretty, in BKK that level of girl would be easy to get for a one night stand for free.

Well, as for nightlife in BKK, no real secrets and these are places easy to find out about, but here goes. (In general white girls are much better looking than Thai girls but dont let that put you off Thai girls – they can be much sweeter and just different.)

RCA/Thonglor (in particular Funky Villa, but really anywhere – there are like 5 clubs down the road) – for high end classy girls. There is always a sub-set of these girls that dig white dudes, and they will be very clear about letting you know with smiles and eye contact.

Then you have the places on Ratchada like SNOP, etc, which are a bit more downscale and in my opinion get much plainer girls, but who are easier. I am not a fan of the clubs on Ratchada for some reason – the girls are friendly but seem much less pretty. Still, I suppose there are some gems here. Ratchada also has some places that stay open till like 6 AM that the taxi drivers know about.

Forget about Q Bar, it sucks. Bed Supper club (Suk 11) has a models night on Wednsday that gets some super hot Eastern European models who are surprisingly friendly and accessible! Also gets a sprinkling of semi-pros so be on your guard with the Thai girls here. Some normal Thai girls too.

Tapas on Silom soi 4 (dont venture further down the soi as it is a gay soi beyond that) gets a mixed European/Thai crowd, mostly professionals. It only gets busy Fri/Sat and is a real hit or miss kind of place. Some weekends it is flooded with hotties – both white and Thai – and others it is a total dud. Still, a fun and different kind of club.

Mixx club has a Wednsdays girls get in free night and can be great with tons of hotties just waiting to be swooped, but also a bit of a hit or miss place (some Wednsdays can be duds) and the place gets semi-pros as well. Some of these semi-pros can be super hot, though, and I suppose you can *shore* them. You will see a lot of older Indian bizness men with some real eye candy on their arms, its amusing.

What else we got? Oh, Scratch Dog for after hours – mostly Thai and Korean with a few white dudes thrown in, pretty girls considering it is an after hours place. SOME semi-pros, so watch out.

THEN there the 3-4 after hours that are full of backpackers and almost entirely pros and semi-pros (Bossy, Lucky, etc – ask taxi drives they get commission0. These places stay open till 5-6 in the morning and only get going after 1 AM, and can be quite energetic and fun, if a bit sleazy and rough around the edges. The girls are less pretty than the regular places but on the weekends there are some real beauties who wander in from the other venues around town. One of these places stays open till 12 PM the next morning – I forget what it is called but ask around, the taxis all know.

Then there is a nice little house/techno club that also stays open late across from Nana Plaza that gets mostly flat out pros, but sometimes it gets normal girls and can be a fun place to chill for a bit. Its a bit different than other places and fun to watch ppl do their thing.

There is probably more places but I cant think of them right now.

Enjoy!

Breeze December 18, 2011 at 5:02 am

@ Davver: Id be interested to hear what you have to say about investing. Do you.have a blog or.could.you do. Do a guest post?

@ Frost: I am interested in doing. WhT you have done. Could you do a break down of the finances and whqt things could you do.cheaper

Frost December 19, 2011 at 1:25 am

Will do. Check the comments to the online companion for a first draft.

Rollory December 17, 2011 at 9:56 pm

“Money is trickling out of my savings account at a slower pace than it’s trickling in … Every day, I’m learning new ways to earn money on the road from books and some entrepreneurial-minded friends I’ve met out here.

– Learning how to fund my life without the time suck of a nine-to-five job”

You’re going to have to be more specific about this before I believe it to be anything but hogwash. If it was that easy, lots of people would do it.

re: the American women discussion – I am just tired of trying to figure out how to have non-adversarial interactions with them. They’re not interested; fine. I’ve learned enough from Roissy et al to manage elsewhere.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 1:25 am

I’m not writing about any of my forays into online businesses because I haven’t been successful with any of them yet. I had two money-making schemes on tap before I left. One basically failed, and the other – the F25 book – succeeded modestly.

I have always been somewhat skeptical about the viability of online marketing and other Tim Ferriss-esque approaches to generating location-independent income, but I’m surrounded by guys who have had success with them. I’m definitely not an expert, but I know enough to know it’s a skill set worth acquiring.

davver December 19, 2011 at 10:37 am

What makes your blog interesting is that you haven’t succeeded yet. For blogs where people already made it, you’ve always got to worry about survivorship bias. Whether you succeed or fail, we will see it live, which is cool.

You can definately make money doing something most people fail at. I did so with poker in college, it paid my tuition. Its true that 95% of poker players lose money, and of the 5% that make money only those at the top make enough money for it to be bette then a regular job. But if your in the 99% of IQ, why shouldn’t you be in the 99% of a lot of things. That was my experience anyway.

That said, when you flame out it can be big. My roomate in college, who was a smart fellow, ended up losing $30k and almost killed himself trying to replicate my success. I considered that experience amongst money when deciding whether or not to go pro. Years later I talked to a friend at a bar who had been pro for five years. The Feds passed a law against internet poker and froze his entire bankroll. He was left with nothing. Also nearly ODed. For five years before that he was living the dream, at least to an extent. Then boom, all gone one day. Its certainly possible to succeed at things where most people fail, if only because you have better genes then most people. But watch out, don’t fall to hard if it doesn’t work out.

Orange December 17, 2011 at 8:05 pm

@OneSTDV

“They hate American women (“they’re all fat bitches”), marriage, the family, etc. ”

More to the US than just that. Just because some of us hate having to do anything with American women, particularly starting a family with them, doesn’t mean we hate everything this country has to offer.

It’s a fucking FACT that there’s a coin-flip chance – 50% – of your ass getting raped in divorce court if you ever decide to marry an American woman. All LTR game does it reduce the percentage a little bit, it doesn’t really eliminate it all together.

Would you still be espousing the benefits of marrying an American woman once the divorce rate hits 60% or 70% in the next 20-30 years?

OneSTDV December 17, 2011 at 5:21 pm

I explicitly did not include you because I think you’re different than the other guys.

My main beef is actually the indiscrminate hatred of everything American that is popular amongst travel bloggers. They hate American women (“they’re all fat bitches”), marriage, the family, etc. They hate every single thing about America and their abject pessimism really grates me. Secondly, implicit to this anti-Americanism is the notion that foreign countries are so much more vibrant. This is an especially risible idea considering that so many travel bloggers go to South America. It also parallels the liberals who think neighborhoods full of black and brown people have more cultural vibrancy than the stable middle-class suburbs.

Third, you’re completely unique in the travel genre as you’re seeking physical, spiritual, and intellectual growth. Most travel bloggers just want to bang hookers, get drunk, and go to clubs. They have little interest in making real friendships, finding love, or establishing any sort of responsible lifestyle. They merely want to drop out of society instead of (\ironic black slang alert) “handling they bidness.”

And back to one of my statements above: for god sakes, some men (many men in fact) actually want to get married and raise children. This is especially so as men leave their 20s. I’m sick of hearing manosphere bloggers state as fact that every man will be caught in a loveless marriage with some fat bitch. Learn LTR Game to undermine liberal SWPL shit tests and move to a middle-class city to avoid all the fatties.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 1:21 am

Do you disagree with their critiques of American women? Sure, it’s possible to overstate the case against them, but it’s hard. In the present combination of entitled American women and biased courts, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that 80+% of American women are unmarriageable.

That said, it is possible to have a reasonable shot at a trad family with game and proper selection. Also, foreign women (thais at least) have their own set of problems.

As for the stereotype of the vagabond who hits the road because he sees the world outside the USA as more vibrant, cultural etc than the US – it is accurate. These people are everywhere, and they are annoying. The USA is a fine place, even if it currently falls far short of its potential. But it’s also a country with a cloud of gloom and dullness above it. Thailand, or at least Chiang Mai, and the expats I’ve met here, just have a lot more life to them than the average person in the western world.

Such is my impression anyways.

I also think that most long-term travelers tend to be on journeys similar to mine, whether they describe them as such or not. Every guy I meet here has some kind of businesses on the go, some kind of mission to fulfill. Traveling for them is often a way of cutting the bullshit out of there lives so they can focus on what they’re doing.

That said, if you don’t think you’d enjoy doing what I’m doing, you probably wouldn’t. Everyone has their own appetite for adventure, and there is a common tendency among travelers that whoever is most adventurous ‘wins.’ But we can’t all be Naughty Nomad, whose idea of a relaxing vacation is to spend a month fighting for the Sudanese rebel armies. There’s a lot of cool stuff to see and do in the US, and I suspect the price of a vacation into the Eurozone is about to get pretty cheap. Just something to consider.

Rob December 17, 2011 at 1:04 pm

Agree with Davver. There is no upcoming “war”. There is no need to save the world. It’s gonna go on just fine without any of us. You and I may not like the way it spins but no one can stop the rising tide. You can’t possibly believe a small cadre of enlightened spartans are going to lead the masses of this country, can you? There have been conflicts coming and going forever. The world is one big finite resource and people don’t like to share. Enjoy yourself and try to make some coin.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 12:59 am

Guess we’ll agree to disagree on that.

America is less than a decade away from default, hyperinflation, and a collapse in its standard of living. I am close to 90-99% sure of this. I believe it’s more likely than not that once the welfare checks stop rolling into the projects, there will be widespread civil disorder.

You think I am overly pessimistic because in the past 60 years, ‘things have happened’ in the US, but never anything too serious. Well, in the hundred years before that we had 3-4 wars that killed hundreds of thousands. History isn’t over.

davver December 19, 2011 at 1:50 am

This is a dangerous level of sureness. I don’t think I’ve ever been 90-99% sure on any investment decision or risk I’ve ever taken. Even with the housing bubble I wasn’t 90-99% sure on the timing, even if I was pretty sure I diagnosed the bubble correctely. And I definately wasn’t 90-99% sure of exactely how it was going to go down (which banks would get saved and which wouldn’t, what DOW level the authorities would defend and when, etc).

The simplest question I’d come with is why didn’t it happen already. Plenty of people have been selling this hyperinflation idea for some time, and LOTS of alt right guys and guys you have praised on this blog said we’d get hyperinflation when the housing bubble collapsed. But instead, we got deflation. And many of thier investment ideas were terrible. A lot of ink has been spent debating on the inflation/deflation debate and its fallout, that your 90-99% sure and already have a pretty concise timeline is pretty darn bold.

I’d say I put the odds of black swan type events in the US much higher then your average observer, but I have nowhere near the level of certainty you do. I know its tempting to think that because you saw the housing bubble now you’ve got this bubble thing down, but lots of people saw the housing bubble and have gone on to give terrible advice, even about what would happen when the bubble collapsed. In truth, I made a chunk of change on the bubble burst but haven’t had a strong feeling about how to invest in over two years.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 10:32 am

The only alternatives to hyperinflation in the US is for the American electorate to experience spontaneous sanity and start consistently voting for politicians who reign in spending, or for some sort of counter-revolution/military coup to restore sane government by force.

In either case, gold will likely be officially remonetized. I grant that there is a chance I’m wrong about this though. Digital currencies perhaps, or silver.

No matter what though, American living standards are about to collapse, and my Asia-heavy equity portfolio will do well.

Who would you recommend I read to get a reliable optimist’s view on the American economy? I consider anyone who isn’t predicting a massive black swan event an ‘optimist.’ For the pessimist’s view, I recommend Peter Schiff, Gonzalo Lira, Mencius Moldbug…

davver December 19, 2011 at 12:38 pm

The only alternative is a lot of things. Deflation, muddle through, longer or shorter timelines.

Take a simple problem, should you buy a house? If you are 90-99% sure of hyperinflation within 10 years you should be buying up houses left and right with as high a loan to value ratio as possible.

Also, why would an Asian heavy investment portfolio do well in such a case? Do you even think about the issues going on in Asia now. It sounds eerily like people buying Japanese stocks in 1990 because they don’t like the politics in their own countries. Investing in Asia is complicated, its not as simple as just noting that yellow people study hard.

Same for gold. I’ve made money off gold, but its a lot more complicated then just things get bad = gold go up.

“American living standards are about to collapse”

Knowing this and knowing how to invest based on it are two very different things! How and when are the relevant questions if you actually want to make money of it.

I posted somewhere else about Peter Schiff, but he’s actually a pretty good example of a guy whose analysis starts and ends with not liking America. I’ve spoken to the guy in person and outside of his pessimism he’s very intellectually uncurious.

davver December 19, 2011 at 8:03 pm

On the Asia issue, I wanted to link this earlier and finally found it:

To really learn from the Chinese, and to enjoy such staggering growth rates, we should go about things differently: let’s have a Maoist insurrection followed by a civil war that lasts for several years. Then let’s destroy most of the wealth in the country, and drive out millions of our most enterprising and educated citizens by launching systematic terror campaigns during which millions of others will die in violence or of starvation. Next, let’s have a modest economic opening in coastal regions: impoverished citizens will be allowed to launch small-scale township and village enterprises and components will be assembled in a handful of cities by our stunted descendants. Then let’s severely curb those township and village enterprises because they represent a potential political threat and invite large foreign multinationals and state-owned enterprises [let’s not forget those!] to work our population to the bone at artificially suppressed wage rates, threatening those who complain with serious reprisals up to and including death. Let us also initiate a population control policy designed to improve our dependency ratio for a few decades. As large numbers of workers shift from low-value agricultural work to manufacturing, we will experience … rapid growth! Mind you, getting from here to there will involve destroying an enormous swathe of our present-day GDP. And that sectoral shift from rural to urban work will run out of gas pretty fast, as will the population control policy that will guarantee rapid aging.

Another way to grow the American economy is to embrace Brink Lindsey’s “Frontier Economics” approach. Recognizing that advanced economies are different from other economies — it is easy to replicate the institutions and practices pioneered in the leading economies; it is harder to create new practices and products that take off — we need to facilitate experimentation to achieve growth, and even then we won’t match growth that flows from conditional convergence.

Rob December 19, 2011 at 11:08 am

I don’t necessarily disagree with your predictions of default,etc…I’m not as certain as you but, on the other hand, I haven’t had a rosy view of the future since I was 6.

Even if what you predict comes to pass, then what? My primary point is simply that the US will go on, albeit differently. And if there is civil disorder? No small group of enlightened souls will fill the vacuum and steer the masses to a more productive future.

This country is becoming more of a police state every day. If the economy crashes, the police state will arrive even faster. But don’t make the mistake of thinking a group of revolutionaries will somehow wrest power from the State. One interesting aspect of your worldview is how your pragmatism mixes with naivety. You prepare for a difficult economic future (prudent) while holding on to a romantic Hollywood script that tells you that in the aftermath of the collapse, you and your equals will raise the ignorant masses out of servitude (ridiculous).

foseti December 17, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Frost December 19, 2011 at 12:54 am

I read Froude, probably after that post of yours, and I’ll check out the others – thanks for the links. After reading just the titles, the 3rd link (Fleming) interested me the most. Then I clicked through to your review =/

Boheme Chinois December 17, 2011 at 12:05 pm

Western civilization has much to offer and I believe it should be saved. I’m also an Asian American. However, it depends on how fast and how we save it. I used to live in the Los Angeles area and I felt despair as Mexicans seemed to come in at a horrific rate. I fear California and perhaps the Southwest will resemble Mexico more and more. Unless more White Americans, Jews, and/or Asians move into the area, it’ll look more like a developing cesspool of brown people.

I studied international relations in college and I have traveled to China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Europe, the US, Canada, Mexico, and the Bahamas. So far, I think really the best and most significant cultures have been of European descent or East Asian descent. Asians and Europeans have made the best the world has had to offer. Though I would say Europeans and European-descent have pretty much made the modern world, the ancient world was heavily-influenced by China in tandem with Rome.

Life is truly going to be interesting. However, when shit finally hits the fan in the West, I don’t think I would want to be in the States. Maybe the men can rebuild afterwards with Asian financial and labor assistance.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 12:51 am

I hope so. I really don’t know enough about the Chinese mindset to say one way or the other. Ideally the world will one day be governed by grown-ups again, and Euro/Chinese/Japanese/other civilizations can deal fairly and peaceably with each other.

davver December 17, 2011 at 12:00 pm

Where is “none of the above”? None of you are doing anything but what you want to do for yourselfs, whether your stay here or not. The following applies to any kind of man o sphere blogger, so don’t take it as a personal attack. I would do it on ONESTDVs if I wasn’t having technical problems.

Your not going to save the world, in any remote way, by traveling or “becomming the best man you can be”. Neither will you by bitching about politics on the internet. Your going to make yourself happy, and there’s nothing wrong with that, but there is no need to dress it up in anything.

I went to a concert over the summer and in the middle of it the band has a thing on saving some minority in some third world country I never heard of from some dictator. It made me want to puke. You started a band so you could get rich and get laid. People paid to see this concert so they can have fun and get laid. Do we really need to pretend going to a fucking concert is going to save anything?

That’s what its like when I read man o sphere blogs. Okay, you want the best life you can get for yourself, great. Eat well, train well, make some good life choices, this is all good advice. But you don’t need to couch it in any saving the world or enlightenment BS.

I know why men do it. Because it sells, just like the band at that concert knew it would sell. It sells more books, gets more subscribers, building a movement can fund your doing the things you want to do. Well, getting marketed to is demeaning.

All of your various cultural and political opinions seemed to be based on whatever you think will help you get the most for yourself. Whether it be right or left, libertarian or authoritarian, its just the male equiviliant of, “come the revolution, I’ll be on top.” When I read about this stuff I find it hilarious sometimes. If there’s one thing having real life accomplishments helps with its sorting through peoples bullshit on subjects. Do you know what its like to read about finance from some schlub on the internet when you’ve actually worked in investment banking.

Frost, you believe in your brand of libertarianism because you think it will get you things. Mises, Rothbard, they are great thinkers. But I can tell when you write about them that you consider their work uncritically. You see what you want to see because as a healthy strong western male you think you’d come out on top in such a society, and because it justifies your lifestyle desires (just like all those people I worked with on WS who suddenly developed Ayn Rand fetishes when lying to people and ripping them off meant they got rich). Its not all that different from old feminist cougars who try to convince people attractiveness is a social construct because it makes them feel good about themselves. You build a reality to justify how you live.

So just say your a nihilist and embrace it. Nihilism isn’t so bad, quite frankly I think everyones a nihilist. They just desire different things. For some, helping people is the thing that makes them happy, so even if they are nihilists they have to do it. In your case you just want all the money, bitches, and freedom you can get so just go for it and stop pretending its anything more then that.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 12:48 am

I’m not a libertarian, and I while I’ve read and respect Mises and Rothbard, I think their worldview is incomplete. If you’re going to accuse me of accepting someone else’s ideology uncritically, might as well point to Moldbug and the rest of my La Reactione blogroll.

Saving the world, as you put it, is actually counterproductive to a life of money/bitches/etc. Reading old books is a time suck, and I suspect I make myself unpalatable to the majority of non-alt-right lifestyle design readers with my occasional forays into right wing politics.

davver December 19, 2011 at 1:37 am

A nihilist’s goal is his own happiness. If reading old books makes you happy, more happy then a marginal unit of effort towards acquiring more money/bitches/etc then you’ll read old books. And I’m sure part of you believes the knowledge acquired therein will have a positive affect on your life, you pretty much say as much below.

Frost December 19, 2011 at 10:19 pm

Thanks for the thoughtful comment. I put a lot of stock in Schiff’s analysis, so I’d love to check out some sources that call his analysis into question.

Buying gold is essentially a bet on remonetization. If gold is remonetized, you will make a ton of money. If not, you will lose a ton of money.

East asian equities are based on the inevitable transfer of purchasing power from the west to the east, which will eventually happy with savings rates in both regions where they are.

I do recommend buying american property and leveraging the balls out of it. The prop value will go down, but not as fast as the real value of your USD-denominated loan.

With respect though, I think your analysis suffers from an underestimation of Schiff’s. I know mainstream and austrian economics pretty much inside and out, and I know that the latter is based on an accurate interpretation of reality while the former is not. Schiff is a smart guy, and he has basically derived the tradeable implications of the austrian worldview, and has done quite well making those trades in his career. I am open to being convinced that schiff is wrong, but I think you have some homework to do if you think his analysis begins and ends with anti-americanism!

davver December 20, 2011 at 8:29 pm

I already went over this in the other thread, but I’ll rehash a bit here.

“East asian equities are based on the inevitable transfer of purchasing power from the west to the east, which will eventually happy with savings rates in both regions where they are. ”

Huh? Why? Remember when the Japs lent us billions and then went on a two decade recession. Remember when the plot of Robocop 3 was some Japanese company buying up America. How did that work out again? The Japs have been running a trade surplus, buying American bonds for two decades, and saving up a storm. Doesn’t seem to have helped their economy.

You need to look at how financial crisises work. Truth is, they are harder on the creditor! America was Europes creditor leading up to the Great Depression and it got the worst of it (well, they got facism, but as far as economic indicators go we had the deepest recession). The truth is, creditors end up no worse off when debt gets written down. After all, debtors had nothing before, and they still have nothing. But creditors had something before, and now they have nothing.

Owning real assets with no debt against them is pretty good in a crisis, but China didn’t really buy real resources with those dollars. It mostly just owns USG paper, in other words nothing if we don’t want them too. A few of the more stupid local governments sold some roads or tolls and such, but if the shit really hits the fan foriegn holding will get nationalized again faster then a 3rd world dictator confiscates a BP oil rig.

Savings investing. Saving is simply the act of not spending. It doesn’t mean anything without investment. And in truth China has invested poorly (just like Japan, but likely worse). Poor investments are worthless. That savings is worthless. China is going to come out of this a lot less wealthy then they think they are. Yeah, some of those investments they made will pay off, but a whole lot of them will be trains nobody wants and apartment buildings places nowhere wants to live (sound familiar). You really need to watch some videos on the ghost cities China has build, they make all those idiotic track homes in Florida seem like great investments.

I’m sure many young Asians seem full of life. But you’ld find many young Americans full of life too if you went to if you go to the right places, like the silicon valley startup scene. And in those Asian countries that already caught up, like Japan, they have the same sense of dread about the future as many people do here. Its called the end of catch up growth. No Asian tiger has figured out how to keep growing once they catch up to the west.

They have high IQs and decent cultures, I’m sure they will do alright, but its not some utopia, its not even clear they are better.

“I do recommend buying american property and leveraging the balls out of it. The prop value will go down, but not as fast as the real value of your USD-denominated loan. ”

Dear god. Well, thank god Schiff did the exact opposite of this (in complete contradiction to his stated economic believes). His most successful investment was his fund that shorted mortgages.

“I know mainstream and austrian economics pretty much inside and out, and I know that the latter is based on an accurate interpretation of reality while the former is not. ”

I kinduv doubt you know it inside and out, considering if you read and thought about Rothbard’s Great Depression you’ld already see some of the stuff I’m talking about. But on to your other point, you’re just exhibiting “red pill invincibility syndrom”. Watching Schiff point out that CNBC talking heads are clowns is not the same as actually knowing the path a downturn will take and what the best asset classes to invest in are.

I met Schiff in 2008 and talked with him awhile. I also dealt with people from his brokerage, though I never made a trade with them. Here’s what Schiff was pimping in 2008:

1) The overwhelming suggestion that he wanted everyone to make the cornerstone of their portfolio was European clue chip companies. That’s right, Schiff was bullish on European stock markets. How’d that work out?

2) Schiff was also huge on commodities and commodities stocks, even when oild was at $140/barrel. He kept pimping them the whole time. How that work out?

3) Schiff did make a ton of money shorting mortgages, but as I pointed out, that goes completely against his hyperinflation prognosis.

4) Gold did well, though from talking to his brokers they really didn’t offer any advice on the sector you couldn’t get yourself.

5) He never recommended shorting treasuries, but I can sure tell you he would never talk anyone out of it. Being long treasuries these last couple years has been one of my best investments.

Please reread Rothbard. Pleast go back a few years and read every post on this site: http://www.interfluidity.com

davver December 20, 2011 at 8:30 pm

“creditors end up no worse off” should read “debtors end up no worse off”

Frost December 22, 2011 at 3:02 am

Man, I can not thank you enough for this awesome comment. Send me an email if you like, I’d be happy to put your name on my list for a free copy of the next book.

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